Conseq - News

CHART OF THE WEEK - Global stock markets cheapened

05. 03. 2020

Our major propriety composite valuation indicator was at the level of +13 % at the end of 2019 which indicated to us that global stocks markets were a bit overvalued. However due to massive sell-off from the last week, the biggest since the global financial crisis in 2008...

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKL - Worst week since the global financial crisis in 2008

02. 03. 2020

Global markets of risky assets recorded the worst week since the global financial crisis in 2008. This was due to the very rapid spread of the coronavirus epidemic from China to the world. In Europe, Italy is the focus.

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - Global money supply dynamics is negative

27. 02. 2020

Global money supply dynamics in the most followed month-on-month comparison is negative, currently at around -0.5 %. As well in the year-on-year comparison the dynamics is very weak at the level of +3.6 % which is significantly below the nominal global GDP growth.

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Coronavirus impacting the global economy

24. 02. 2020

Coronavirus dominated media headlines again in the past week. IMF decreased its forecast for the global economy growth due to the epidemic while significantly decreased its forecast for Chinese economy growth. Virus is also harshly impacting global supply chains. Moreover...

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - US equities are strongly overvalued

20. 02. 2020

Trend of the past years when US equities have showed significantly better performance should in our view gradually reverse (mean-reversion). And this primarily due to valuation reasons. We are of the view that US equities are tremendously overvalued. The following table...

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Positive mood continued

17. 02. 2020

Last week headlines in the media were again dominated by news about the coronavirus epidemic, its expected impact on the world economy, and last but not least, we witnessed relatively weak macroeconomic data from the Eurozone and, in particular, Germany, whose economy...

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - World trade dynamics is declining strongly

13. 02. 2020

World economy dynamics has achieved its peak at the turn of 2017 and 2018 and since then has been slightly slowing down. Among the indicators which illustrates this development quite well is world goods trade dynamics.

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Financial markets has rebounded quickly after the first impact of coronav

10. 02. 2020

While the global financial markets were under severe pressure from the coronavirus epidemic the week before last week, last week the trend reversed and stock markets grew strongly. And this was despite the fact that new global macroeconomic data were rather on the weaker side.

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - Equities are virtually risk-free in the very long-term horizon

06. 02. 2020

Stock markets fluctuates continuously in the mid-term to long-term horizon. Sometimes there is a very strong growth, sometimes there is a very strong decline. Among the major factors that influence this fluctuating belong the macroeconomic dynamics of the global economy...

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - The coronavirus epidemic and weak macro data sent markets down

03. 02. 2020

Fed had a meeting last week. There were no changes in the easy monetary policy in-line with expectations. On Friday there were weak macro data from the Eurozone whose GDP grew in the fourth quarter only by 0.1 % q/q. At the same time, the dynamics of GDP growth in France and...

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - Financial repression

30. 01. 2020

The term financial repression describes a situation in which we have been on financial markets recently. It regards negative interest rates, respectively negative yields to maturity on government bonds and exceptionally also corporate bonds, especially in the Eurozone.

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - ECB did not change its monetary policy, world economy growth will remain

27. 01. 2020

ECB had a meeting last week. There were no changes in the monetary policy in-line with expectations.

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - Chinese economy is the engine of the whole world economy

23. 01. 2020

Leading indicators are sentiment indicators or economic indices that measure current economic conditions and outlook for upcoming months. According to OECD leading indicators China is clearly the engine of the whole world economy.

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Positive sentiment continued

21. 01. 2020

The main news of the past week was the signing of the phase one deal between the US and China. Markets sighed, though nervousness and uncertainty about the further development continues. Additional important news was that the global economy grew in 2019 by slowest pace since...

chart of the week

CHART OF THE WEEK - Structure of corporate debt in the US and the Eurozone is very different

16. 01. 2020

US corporations rely especially on financial markets, i.e. financing via corporate bonds. On the contrary corporations in the Eurozone are heavily dependent on bank loans.

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Equities continued to grow without any major fundamental news

13. 01. 2020

Past week was relatively weak on new significant fundamental data and news. Despite the fact that the international situation in the Middle East, especially related to Iran, is more than complicated, global stock markets continued to grow by 0.6 % according to MSCI All Country...

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - US equities are tremendously overvalued

09. 01. 2020

Within the asset allocation of our investment portfolios we have US equities strongly underweighted against benchmarks.

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Killing of a prominent Iranian general increased nervousness

06. 01. 2020

With the turn of the year very low volatility was again present on financial markets in the past week. Towards the end of the week, the killing at the direct order of US President Trump of a prominent Iranian general increased nervousness. Crude oil price reacted by 3...

Financial markets weekly

CHART OF THE WEEK - China’s economic growth in perspective

02. 01. 2020

When we look at Chinese economic growth with the lens of the last 30 years we find out that it is an unbelievable story.

chart of the week

FINANCIAL MARKETS WEEKLY - Minimum Christmas liquidity and continuation of asset prices growth

30. 12. 2019

Activity on financial markets was impacted by Christmas in the past week as minimum liquidity was present during trading. Despite that markets managed to grow slightly. Global stock markets strengthened by 0.7 % and are up by unprecedented 24 % since the beginning of the year....

Financial markets weekly